Informed Decisions in a Changing Climate

Can you imagine living through Hurricane Katrina?

As a white woman from the northeastern U.S., I believed that I understood that racism exists, that I have advantages that others do not and that racism matters.

Then, I arrived in New Orleans in August '89 to begin law school.  I drove into the city with a truck full of my possessions.  Ten minutes after crossing into the city, before finding the University, I stopped at a local restaurant. I walked in.  And what I saw stunned me.

There were about ten men working there.  One white man, the rest black men.  The white man was the manager.  And the black men were his subordinates.

The heat was oppressive.  The humidity like nothing I had ever experienced before.  A heavy pall. There was a dull and vague acceptance of a crappy job, oppressive humidity and unquestioned separation of race.  There was a hopelessness in the men's eyes.  No eye contact.  Just "yes, missus" from bowed heads.

I shook off the experience, thinking I was reading more into it than existed.  Perhaps I was just projecting my 1960's preconceived notions.

However, the city never felt like part of the same country I grew up in. Police were corrupt. Government was corrupt. At a level I had never seen before. I watched police officers buy beer while on duty, get into their patrol car, open up and drive off. It was not a good plan to get pulled over by state troopers if you were young and female. That was not speculation. That was reality. The crime rate was huge. Theft, murder, drugs. The animal shelter was so poorly funded that animals' cages were never cleaned. Strays ran rampant. And the homeless children. Boys that had bottle caps in their sneakers and tapped for money. Living on the streets. The interstate between Baton Rouge and New Orleans is known as cancer alley because of the high rate of pollutant-driven cancers.

And, of course, there were poorly maintained levees.

I graduated from law school in May 1992 and moved on.  I gave New Orleans only passing thoughts until August 2005.  And then, along with the rest of the nation and world, looked on in horror as Hurricane Katrina arrived, the most impoverished and disempowered citizens failed to evacuate, the levee failed, Bush's FEMA failed, and the USA looked like a country from the developing world.

Hurricane Katrina floods Canal St.

Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina

Poverty, race, corruption and lack of preparation converged to create horror and suffering.  Rapes and looting and terror-filled nights ensued.

The wealthier folks got out.  But even they did not get off scot-free.  Many people never returned to rebuild their homes and their businesses.  New Orleans' recovery was anemic and slow.

The losses were overwhelming.  "An estimated 1,833 people died in the hurricane and the flooding that followed in late August 2005, and millions of others were left homeless along the Gulf Coast and in New Orleans.

Katrina was the most destructive storm to strike the United States and the costliest storm in U.S. history, causing $108 billion in damage,"

Many of those that lived through this were determined to learn from the experience.  This is not something you want to struggle through a second time.

Here is the story of one couple.  They were fortunate in that they were privileged enough to own their own their own home and business and to escape the worst parts of Katrina:

Julie Hebert was a newlywed when, 38 years ago, she moved to her husband's native Chalmette. They built a life and a business together. Then Katrina made landfall. Like much of Chalmette, the Hebert family's home and business were left in ruin.

They fled to Houston, staying three months or so. When they decided to return to Louisiana, they did their research, asking neighbors around prospective homes for the neighborhood's flood history.

The couple settled on a small subdivision in Denham Springs, near Interstate 12. The main road leading to the subdivision has two low spots where water typically pools during heavy rain, she said, occasionally making it impassible. But neighbors told them water had never flooded homes there.

"It wasn't like we bought carelessly," Hebert, 56, said Monday from her daughter's home in nearby Walker.

The Heberts were sensible.  Making choices to avoid the same kind of devastation based on all the information they could garner.

There is just one problem.

They asked the neighbors.  Like most of America, the neighbors were basing their information on past experience.  That is reasonable.  Except that most of America, and these neighbors, and the local planners, were ignoring significant information.  That is, they were ignoring the warnings of climate scientists.

What happened next in this story demonstrates that while climate change impacts the poor and disempowered most powerfully, it leaves out no one.

In August, 2016, it started to rain in Denham Springs.  A lot.  Meteorologists' descriptions range from a one-in-a five hundred year flood to a one-in-a thousand year flood.

When the rain intensified Thursday into Friday, Hebert and her husband figured they'd have to stay home for a day or two until water retreated from the main road.

"We had groceries in the house (and) the electricity didn't go off," she said. "We were fine on supplies."

But as Saturday progressed, Hebert noticed water from a backyard pond started marching toward her house.

Hebert started packing, relying on her Katrina experience while reminding herself, "it doesn't flood here."

The water continued rising up to the back door, then up the front yard and into the garage. They gathered more things, and their pets, and waded through the water to join neighbors waiting for a boat.

2016 Flooding in Southeast Louisana Rescue

Who could have predicted that this area is at increased risk of flooding?  Certainly not the neighbors.  And no one could have predicted this storm in this spot.

But, the scientists have been saying that the storms will come with increasing frequency and intensity.  And, in fact, the storms have been doing just that.  Tangipahoa Parish has seen two one-in-five hundred year storms in five months.

If we don't listen to the scientists, and take account of the changes they say are coming, we can't make good decisions.  We may have limited options in many cases, but, certainly, planning for and reacting to floods like these requires knowing what we are up against.  Julie Hebert had resources and tried to make good decisions.  But neither she nor her community heard the recommendations of the most credible experts:  climate scientists.  And now, she has lost everything.  AGAIN.

Climate change is going to challenge all of us.  The disempowered will face the worst suffering.  The lack of infrastructure, the corruption, the systemic disregard for people create real life horrors.  We saw it in Katrina on our very own shores.  We see it in Syria in the faces of children awash in a sea of bombs and scarce resources.

Omran Daqneesh Pulled from Aleppo Bomb Ruins

We must frame our climate solutions to include building up climate resiliency for people who do not have the resources to do so for themselves.

But, too, we must insist that those with resources get the information they need to make good decisions.  For those that can rebuild, they must hear that the past weather, by itself, is not predictive of the future weather in a changing climate.  Instead, we must factor in the projections from the scientists.

Many just like the Heberts are stepping into the future blind folded.  We must take the blinders off, look around, and make the best decisions we can.  And use those resources to protect not only ourselves, but also those without the resources to protect themselves.

Scientific Consensus, the IPCC and Just How Bad It Really Is

Here is a great graphic showing possible pathways we can take. It shows how soon we start emissions cuts will determine the rate at which we must get to zero emissions and how much ultimate warming we will see.

This graphic demonstrates the projections made within consensus science, including the IPCC projections.  These IPCC projections are terrifying, but show a 50% chance of staying under 1.5C warming if we get to zero emissions by 2035 and a 66% chance of staying under 2C warming if we get to zero emissions by 2050.

Cutting edge, newer projections, are generally more dire than this.  Here are some examples of news stories that paint an even more dire picture: http://theconversation.com/we-have-almost-certainly-blown-the-1-5-degree-global-warming-target-63720 and https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/aug/15/climate-urgency-weve-locked-in-more-global-warming-than-people-realize?CMP=share_btn_fb

IPCC projections are unusual in science, as a self-conscious attempt to sum up the consensus. Normally, in science, consensus simply emerges from the literature over long periods of time.  Given we don't have long periods of time, the IPCC attempts to move that forward more quickly. 

Faced with these contradictions, the media and the polity generally assume the more recent studies are the better or more accepted science.  However, in science, it usually works in reverse.  The newest studies have yet to be vetted and require more time for attempts to confirm or rebut their conclusions.  In the case of climate change, we don't have that kind of time.  Moreover, new data is available on a daily basis, adding weight to the newer studies.  On top of that, the IPCC often is suspected of slanting toward the more conservative, more palatable, less scary conclusions as a matter of policy.

So, what is a climate concerned citizen to do?

It is still very important to stay grounded in scientific process. Newer, cutting edge projections do not have the benefit of as much vetting by the scientific community. One of the reasons science is so trustworthy is that vetting process. So while we should keep an eye on the newer projections, we cannot dismiss what scientists have supported en masse already.

This is my take.  The scientists MUST continue to pursue the scientific process.  That means, leaning heavily on the consensus and looking to the cutting edge with skepticism.  But looking to challenge and confirm or rebut it.

The activists, the politicians, the polity, on the other hand, has this:  the reality is that whatever the scientists express differences on, they ALL agree on that we must cut carbon today by ending infrastructure that supports a carbon economy and we must do it as quickly as we can muster.

So a climate concerned citizen must must must continue to work on the certainty that we must cut carbon and leave the uncertainties to the scientists.

This is challenging because politicians want to know how much time we have.  This is challenging because the uncertainties leave those without science literacy think scientists don't know what they are doing and climate activists are not reading the right studies.  This is challenging because none of us want to face the reality that things are really really dire.  This is challenging because good messaging may seem out of touch with the reality, particularly when the reality is uncertain.  This is challenging because the initial steps we can take are dwarfed by the enormity of what we must accomplish.

This is challenging.

But, then, no one said this was easy.

I, for one, will write another letter to the editor, hang dry another load of laundry, replace another incandescent bulb, plan my next year's teaching and plan for my EV purchase this Winter.

Turn Your Face to the Sun and the Shadows Fall Behind You

The climate damage we have locked in is enormous, even by conservative projections.  If we stopped burning all fossil fuels today, if we emitted not one more greenhouse gas molecule, we would continue to warm, with temperatures still climbing 40 years from now.  What's more, it turns out that the warming we are doing is causing changes that will themselves cause further warming.  (Called positive feedbacks).  Some of these could be irreversible (referred to as runaway warming).

This knowledge is a huge blow to anyone first looking at climate change.

Anyone first starting out, thinks, okay, I see this is a problem.  I am ready to address it.  And then they start to dig and they find out that it isn't that simple. Huge changes are already bought and paid for. Nonrefundable.  [Examples of facts people don't often realize when they start out: (1) the Arctic Sea Ice currently reflects light energy but as melted water will absorb light energy and convert it to heat, (2) the potent greenhouse gas, methane, may increasingly be released as ice melts, (3) fires are increasing and therefore releasing even more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, (4) the West Antarctic Ice Shelf  (WAIS) is now irreversibly on a path to collapse, (5) the damage we feel today is from gases put into the atmosphere 40 years ago.  Before learning of these, people think, well, this is a giant problem, but it is purely technological and we can fix it.  These facts are the heartrending truth.]

It is too late to avoid climate change.  We have already warmed about 1C and we are seeing droughts, floods, extreme heat, rampant fires, sea level rise, coral reef devastation, rises in vector borne diseases, super storms and general chaos.  Even more shocking, we cannot avoid 1.5C.  That's right.  All the hellishness we see now, and it doesn't even account for the greater warming we have already bought and paid for.  Add to that that we have the infrastructure to keep burning more, and we don't have the infrastructure to stop burning more.  Not only that, we continue to build the infrastructure to have even greater capacity to burn more into the future.

So the thing they first sought out to save is no longer savable and that is when they throw up their hands and say "it's too late."   This is completely understandable.  

But anyone that has been diagnosed with cancer will tell you, that is when you cry. Like hell. Cry, cry, cry. THEN, you make an appointment for your treatment and you work to extend your chances of being alive in five years from 50% to 60%. Or hope that it will turn out they've got good margins on the tumor and you actually are looking at your ten year survival chances, not five year. Or dare to imagine that a mastectomy will end the cancer and the loss of your breast is all the price you will pay.  And sometimes you cry again. Often times. Because we have a lot to grieve. There is a whole lot that we never will save.  

Grieving is important.  But we must do more than grieve.  We must incorporate the horrible news without becoming dysfunctional. Without losing functioning. Still being able to act.  In the case of climate change, that means recognizing what is left to save.  And knowing that whatever that may be, it is worthy enough, it is valuable enough, to work for.  We cannot be stuck in our pain for what we have lost and simply relate a story of doom.

In the case of climate change, that means recognizing that there is a world of difference between the 4C we are currently headed toward and the 3C the Paris COP21 pledges aim for and the 2C that may be just barely achievable and the 1.5C that might be overshot, and then returned to with negative emissions we don't yet know how to accomplish.  The experts are still recommending a treatment plan:  decarbonization, along with adaptation.  No hospice recommendations yet.

With children to raise, every year, every day, every moment saved is worthy of our efforts.  We may learn that we have a stage 4 diagnosis.  And we may pay the most painful price we can imagine.  But we cannot betray our children by dying without a fight while there is fight still left in us.  

[As a post script, I share the Maori proverb that got me through my own breast cancer diagnosis.  "Turn your face to the sun and the shadows fall behind you."  That proverb never meant to me to ignore my diagnosis.  It meant, instead, that I had to focus on what I could salvage, and later, create out of the devastation.  And, yes, while I lost a breast, and strength in my left arm, I saved my life as a mother, friend and lover.  And, too, I gained wonderful things.  I gained insights into what is truly important to me, I left behind me the things that were harmful.  I learned to accept help and I solidified my friendship with my best friend in before unimaginable ways.  And I started a journey to finding my voice, my beauty and my strength as a woman.  Climate change action is the same.  I try to leave open the door to things I can gain from this journey too.  What?  For me, learning to speak with legislators, finding my voice in writing letters and this blog.  Learning to speak comfortably on the phone, meeting many incredible, dedicated, compassionate people, including the love of my life.  But most importantly, letting my children know that I love them enough to try, and having them tell me they are proud of me.]