Tipping Points and the Leaking Roof: There is No Better Time to Act than Now.

Levee Breach in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina 2005

Tipping points are an important concept in climate change. There are thresholds of warming that, once passed, create changes that are not readily undone. Some of these cannot be undone in years, some in decades and some in centuries or millennia.

One type of shorter term tipping point is inherent in the limitations of our infrastructure. We have constructed our roads, bridges and buildings to withstand a certain range of conditions. When we cross the upper threshold of what they can withstand, suddenly, we experience destruction. The levees overcome during Hurricane Katrina is an example of infrastructure overwhelmed and then resulting floodwaters doing devastating damage all at once. We are crossing infrastructure tipping points left and right.

Arctic Ice Melt 2017, NASA

Longer term tipping points are more scary and their threshold points are less easily identified. An example of this is that as we warm the Arctic, we may warm it enough to release huge amounts of methane that will quickly speed warming (this tipping point is also a positive feedback-warming reinforcing more warming). Exactly how much warming will put us past that point is not certain.

Complicate all of this with the fact that warming is delayed. We are experiencing the warming locked in decades ago, now. What we are doing now is committing us to warming in the future. Knowing just how much carbon emissions we can withstand is a bit like shooting a target blindfolded and dizzy.

There are many tipping points. We’ve passed some and others are in front of us.

As each day passes, we face a steeper and steeper climb.

It’s like a leaky roof. If you replace the roof before it starts to wear badly, it’s best.

If you wait until there are peeling tiles and moss growing, you may have to replace some of the sheeting.

If you wait until water starts to seep in, you have damage to the ceiling Sheetrock to repair.

If you wait until the water is flowing, you will have a lot more to repair.

It’s a long time until the house becomes condemned.

Unfortunately, the term, “tipping point,” while useful, can be fear-inducing without commensurate action-engaging. 

We cannot worry about "passing the tipping points" so much as fixing the leaking roof.  The sooner the better.

The Power of Incrementalism, Revisited, Yet Again; EV Batteries, Government Budgets and Agencies with Horrible Names

Today, for the first time in what seems a lifetime, the Democrats and the Republicans in the Senate agreed to something.  They agreed on something big...the federal budget.  As I scanned the news headlines, there was a lot of talk of important concerns.  The GOP, it turns out, doesn't really mind ridiculously large deficits, the GOP may not really need to placate Trump all the time, and the Democrats are not all necessarily on the same page as Pelosi threatens to send the budget off the rails in an effort to protect Dreamers and DACA.

Unfortunately, I noticed one thing seriously missing in all the budget news.  Just what does this mean for climate change?  The topic seems forgotten in the media coverage. Is it forgotten in the budget?

Now, I haven't seen an analysis of the bill yet, as it relates to climate.  But I did read portions of the bill and I would like to share with you here why the bill is important, why what legislators do is important, why insistence by the Dems that they get funding for more than just defense is important.

I raise to you a little known office within the Department of Energy.  Those that have followed my blog will recognize the office as one of my favorites:  ARPA-E (The Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy--could anyone have dreamed up a less catchy title?).

BEEST: Just one of ARPA-E's projects,
BEEST funds research into EV energy storage

ARPA-E funds research projects into energy storage, transmission, efficiency.  They are making possible the research into battery improvements that will make electric vehicles more economically and practically viable, into grid efficiency in transport of electricity, into distributed energy production (think solar), into storage on microgrids, and so much more.
So much of what we need in order to remove carbon from our electricity production and electrify everything using this carbon-free grid depends on the kind of research ARPA-E makes possible.


You are probably wondering what any of this has to do with the budget.  Democrats pushed for more non-defense spending.  Why does that matter?  ARPA-E is just one small example of what that funding means.  In this bill, ARPA-E receives the same funding it received last year, which is the largest amount it's ever received after its initial inception.

ARPA-E's historical funding levels

Today's ARPA-E Funding in the Senate Budget Bill

If and when the budget passes the House, ARPA-E is going to continue to fund important research into clean energy innovation because the Democrats pushed to fund our government.  Not just our military, but the rest of our government.  There are a lot of good things that our government does, even if everyone wants to talk about how much government sucks.

The moral of this story?  Don't think that just because the Dems and Reps agreed on something that their battles don't matter, are more of the same old, same old or that there isn't a lot riding on the outcomes of these battles.  

Boring old bipartisan agreement to hard won budget battles may mean all the difference in carbon kept underground.

The Moral of the Climate Story; A Mother’s Version

I started to focus on climate action in earnest because I became afraid for my children. What world would they face if we don’t act?  I’ve done everything I can for them, facing scary medical issues, up long and repeated nights, working long days, chauffeuring and doing homework. How can I not also act to preserve a livable world for them too?

So I have immersed myself in climate science and policy. I’ve worked to cut my own emissions, methodically and in a way that supports others doing the same. I’ve developed a network of friends and allies that are doing the same. We support each other. I keep my kids lightly informed, not wanting to overwhelm them with what I know. All the while, raising them the best I can, as they make plans for lives of their own. 

And I encounter people who lightly and dismissively say it is “too late.”

Too late for what?

Too late to avoid warming?  Of course it is. We’ve already warmed 1C over preindustrial times. 

Too late to avoid 1.5C?  Yup. That’s locked in. 

Too late to avoid 2C?  Perhaps. But no one is sure of that yet. It might still be possible. 

Too late to avoid 2.5C? 3C? 3.5C? 6C?  Well, no. It’s not too late to avoid that. . 

What does “too late” mean?  

It’s easy to feel defeated. Year after year, we talk about climate change. We talk about projected impacts and what we must do to avoid them. And then we see them come to pass anyway. 

It’s daunting. 

But “too late” isn’t meaningful. And it most certainly isn’t action-engaging. 

It is essential that we understand how bad things are. And we prepare to adjust to the coming onslaught of change. 

But we also must recognize that our actions still matter. The pace at which we emit carbon over the next 30 years will impact generations. Faster means much faster and harsher impacts. Slower means more time to adjust, more opportunity to act with compassion with each other and less suffering. 

We must still fight for what we know is right. 

Thankfully, we are seeing avenues for action working.  Market disruptions are seeing the rise of solar and wind, married to battery storage and EVs, public transport and city planning that supports pedestrian and cycling. Coal is dying. Oil and gas are next, with the World Bank just announcing it will no longer invest in oil and gas, just as it did with coal some years ago. 

China is churning out solar panels and pricing carbon. India is looking to be a renewable maven. 

Things are hardly rosy. But we cannot fool ourselves into doom. We must focus on mitigating the damage, reducing suffering and increasing opportunities for compassion.

If we truly care about our children, then we are called upon to do the most difficult task of all. We must operate on the belief that love and compassion matter above all else.  

Even more than fear that it is for naught. 

After all my immersion in climate change, I’ve learned there is no “fixing” climate change. My initial journey to save the world for my kids has led me to a harder place that demands more of me. 

Like with a child with a serious illness, all we can do is hold our child and reassure them “it will be alright.”  And do our damndest to make it as alright as we can. All the while reducing their suffering by loving them. And loving them by reducing their suffering. 

In the end, we mourn what we’ve lost. But we rejoice in what we are blessed to have. 

Walk that difficult path. It’s the right thing to do. 

Anger on a Dark Morning-Putting it in Terms That People Seem to Get

Roaring Fork Baptist Church
in Gatlinburg, TN After the Fire

Climate change is the extremist that seeks to end our way of life.

Climate change is the trespasser that invades our private property and steals what is ours.

Climate change is the suicide bomber that kills thousands in fire.

Climate change is the vandal that destroys our statues, our cultural landmarks, our loved ones' tombs.

Roaring Fork Baptist Church
in Gatlinburg, TN Before the Fire

Climate change is the biological weapon that decimates by disease.

Climate change is the enemy soldier that bombs our roads and bridges.

Climate change is the aborter that kills unborn babies.

Climate change is the craven murderer that kills innocents.

Climate change is the kidnapper that steals our children.

Climate change is the ungodly that destroys creation.

Climate change is the stranger that steals our jobs and puts us out of work.

Those that know but continue to profit by it are laughing. The evil are destroying our way of life. They think we are weak. And they are laughing.

The great irony is that it's not terribly difficult to defend our way of life. It is simply a matter of committing to the fight.

To the cowards and traitors that refuse: fuck you.

So-Called Corporatists, the Leftist-Puritans and Getting Sh!t Done

It seems the left is gearing up to eat its own again. The Young Turks are focusing on Andrew Cuomo as corrupt corporatist running for POTUS in 2020.

Yes, in the midst of a GOP mercilessly throwing 24M off of healthcare without so much as a CBO score and a POTUS looking to dig up every spare atom of carbon, and nearly three and a half years in advance of the election, The Young Turks are preparing to bring down one of the likely candidates for the Democratic Party.  Apparently, Cuomo is the great scourge of our time.  Of particular note is his support for charter schools in the past and his less than stellar relationship with teachers’ unions.

I live in Cuomo’s NY. Not only that, I am a public school teacher in Cuomo’s NY.  I have watched in frustration as he has undermined teacher autonomy and input and supported policies that do not empower me as a teacher.  Having lived in Cuomo's NY, and dealt with the frustrations of policies I do not like and political games I've abhorred, I say this:  I would take him in a heartbeat as our nominee and campaign for him.

Corporatist? In the area of carbon emissions alone, that corporatist has overseen the banning of fracking, the push for solar, the implementation of an EV rebate, the goal of cutting emissions 80% by 2050, efficiency programs for appliances, green lending programs, home efficiency and more.

Was he responsible for these? No. The people of NY have built powerful political will and demanded it. When Zephyr Teachout ran against him in the 2014 primary and gave him a run for his money, HE SHIFTED LEFT. His latest move to make college tuition free for families earning under $125,000 would never have happened otherwise. Not only that, he has hobnobbed with the corporations in getting this done. Solar is about big money and the fracking ban was only doable because gas wasn’t as profitable as it once was.

But… Yes, BUT… He DID shift left and he DID bring corporations to the table to make money doing better things rather than worse.

There is a giant chasm between powerful people wielding power within the system and powerful people trampling the system. 

Democrats working for carbon emissions cuts and creating free college tuition?  BRING IT.

The left that booed Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders at the Democratic Convention and voted for Jill Stein in November weakened Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Without being able to demonstrate that they bring the left with them, they have less power. Yes. The purity left has helped to strengthen yet another “corporatist” Democrat-Chuck Schumer.

And you know what? BRING HIM ON TOO. Just this past week, his corporate focus helped bring us $15M increased funding to ARPA-E, despite the fact that Trump slated the clean energy research agency for total elimination. What might have driven “corporatist” Schumer? Saving a corporate interest in Long Island called Brookhaven that depends on ARPA-E funding. 3000 home town jobs.  In clean energy technology. BRING IT.

Bring on powerful people wielding power in the right direction.

We must speak up and out. Expertise, knowledge, and power are important. The left must stop shunning power and must stop demanding purity. We have a rapacious GOP to stop and we have Democrats who broker deals, bring diverse interests to the table and will be moved by our political will, if only we demonstrate that we will sit at the negotiation table rather than simply destroy that table.

The Schumers and the Cuomos of the world are not people I want to have over to dinner. But if they go wreak on the rest of the nation the terror of emissions cuts, fracking bans, free college tuition, and jobs in clean energy technology that they have wrought on New Yorkers, I say BRING IT.

What Scares Fossil Fuel Lackeys More Than Anything?

March 15, 2017 Gallup Poll of American Adults

What scares fossil fuel interests more than anything? What is the one thing that will leave carbon underground while still ensuring that people can continue to drive, to stay warm in winter and cool in summer, to enjoy modern life and rely on the advances that have given us so much?

Clean energy technology. Solar and wind electricity generation.* But not just solar and wind.

What is even scarier to the fossil fuel interests is the essential ingredients to turn solar and wind from “alternative” boutique energy sources to sources that can drive our economy in all seasons and at all times of the day and night:  efficiency, storage, long distance transmission and electrification of transport and heating/cooling.

It is hard for the fossil fuel lackeys to attack solar and wind directly because people consistently support solar and wind. A Gallup poll last week found that 71% of Americans think we should emphasize alternative energy. We have even seen alliance between the Tea Party and climate activists because of shared support for solar energy that translates not just into carbon free energy, but also the independence, decentralization and freedom inherent in individual ownership of electricity generation.

Of course, they do try to attack solar and wind directly, with distorted images of flocks of birds dropping from the sky from wind while discounting the costs to birds of 2C warming. NIMBYism is stoked by fossil fuel money when it is transmission lines carrying hydroelectric energy or putting wind turbines in view, but not when it is gas processing plants or pipelines carrying oil. Whole campaigns suggest that if you don’t support oil and gas, you don’t support energy.

This is a difficult argument for them to make, of course, when considering the beauty of solar and wind farms, the power of individual ownership of rooftop solar, the absence of dirty gas and oil pipelines and processing plants, and, most recently, the money savings from the quickly plummeting costs of renewable energy. Indeed, the Gallup poll shows they are losing that argument.

So how can fossil fuels best resist our march toward becoming a clean energy superpower? Attack where people don’t see you attacking.

While Trump’s budget proposal threatens all kinds of actions that will gut our current attempts to address climate, many of these threaten agencies and programs that are relatively unknown and therefore will likely go largely unopposed—agencies and programs that support transmission, storage, efficiency and electrification of transport and home heating and cooling.

Here is a list of just a few programs and agencies that will not simply be impacted but, if Trump gets his way, will be ELIMINATED:  Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Program (ATVM), Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), State Energy Program (SEP), Energy Star Program, the State Department’s USAID Clean Technology Fund.

ARPA-E:  This Department of Energy (DOE) agency funds projects that are not ready for private investment, but have high potential, in energy storage (battery technology) and transmission (grid technology), among other technologies necessary for solar and wind and other clean energy. It has leveraged $1.8B in private funds since 2009.

ATVM:  This DOE program loans money to support the development of fuel efficient vehicles.

ATVM At Work

Notably, they’ve loaned money to Tesla and Nissan, and thereby directly supported electric vehicle development. It’s loans have allowed for over $50 billion in total project investment.

WAP:  This DOE program helps states provide weatherization services to low-income families, saving them money and reducing heating and cooling energy consumption and costs.  Over 7M families have been served.

SEP:  This DOE program helps states develop energy plans (in order to comply with federal law) by developing efficiency and clean energy technology. Here is just one example:  SEP helped Illinois install geothermal heating and cooling systems in schools.  The program has increased the energy efficiency of more than 19,000 buildings through the installation of energy upgrades and supported the installation of more than 40,000 renewable energy systems.

Energy STAR:  This is the most publicly known in the group. It is a voluntary labeling program that empowers citizens to incorporate efficiency concerns in our purchasing decisions and allows corporations to profit from efficiency. Despite being voluntary, it has been adopted by companies, states, individuals and others widely.

USAID Clean Energy Fund:  “USAID helps countries create policy environments that attract sustained private investment in clean energy.” Their focus?  Here is one small heading from their website:  “REPLACING FOSSIL FUELS AS BASE LOAD POWER:  Clean energy pioneers like Hawaii have proven that renewables can replace fossil fuels as base load power, but the transition requires changes in how utilities do business."

Why would the incoming administration target these programs?

Renewables will remain a constricted energy source until they consistently supply energy day and night through all seasons. Efficiency, transmission, storage and electrification are essential for large scale transition to renewables. I repeat…Without investment in these, we cannot rely predominantly on renewables.

I explored this in full in the past, but here I will quickly summarize. Wind and solar are intermittent. The sun isn’t always shining everywhere and at all times that electricity is needed, nor is the wind always blowing. There are several potential solutions to this problem. (1) Use electricity only intermittently (not viable or even desired), (2) store the energy for later use (batteries, pumped hydro or other), (3) move the energy from one place to another-transmission (a national grid could move energy from where it is produced to where it is needed) or (4) have another energy source that is “dispatchable,” that is, it can be turned on and off to complement the solar and wind (gas or oil).
Without transmission and storage, any use of solar and wind means continuing dependence on gas or oil.

Becoming a clean energy superpower requires solar and wind installation AND the work of groups like ARPA-E and ATVM. We must recognize their importance. The fossil fuel lackeys recognize it and they are attacking.

Seventy-one percent of Americans believe our energy solutions must emphasize “alternative energy.” The problem is that they will remain merely “alternative” if we do not emphasize the technology and innovation necessary to support them.

Climate activism does not simply mean demanding we keep it in the ground. It does not simply mean recognizing the beauty of solar panels, wind turbines, geothermal heating and EVs.

Climate activism also means educating each other on the crucial work of policy experts, scientists and engineers in ensuring we have the efficiency, grid and storage on which renewables depend. It means demanding policies that ensure this work continues.  It means recognizing that these technologies offer us opportunities no less engaging and essential than solar and wind themselves.

* I leave aside the discussion of nuclear energy for the purposes of this piece. I see nuclear as an essential piece of the puzzle. However, there can be no doubt, with or without nuclear, renewables are also an essential part of the puzzle. Their intermittency, whether we move forward with nuclear or not, poses challenges that we must address. That we can address. That offer us opportunities no less exciting than those of solar and wind.  Moreover, nuclear is not under threat by fossil fuel interests nearly to the extent that renewables is.  The reality is that nuclear is so heavily regulated, rightly or wrongly, from the left, that new nuclear is crushed under the weight of its own cost.  I therefore leave that discussion for other pieces.

What Fuels Authoritarianism?

August Landmesser refusing to give the Nazi salute.

Trump and Bannon, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, and all those they lead, are tearing apart our democratic institutions, our carefully constructed safety nets, our infrastructure, our environment, our liberties. They are dismantling agencies that have helped clean our rivers, house our poor, educate our young. They are lying, dissembling, driving divisiveness and fueling hatred.

Where do they get their power from? What is funding the current onslaught of fear, divisiveness, bigotry, consolidation of wealth within the powerful, racism, misogyny? What is enabling them to attack our nation’s core values. How do we disempower their destruction?

The answer is no secret.

Fossil Fuels are not just driving climate change. They are driving our current authoritarian regime.

Let’s start with Paul Ryan, the House Speaker. Fourth largest contributor over his career? Koch Industries.  https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cid=n00004357&cycle=Career

Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader? Fifth largest donor? Peabody Energy (coal). https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cycle=Career&cid=N00003389

Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson? A man who has done nothing but work for oil his entire career, who directed disinformation campaign to discredit science, who has been thwarted from oil profits by sanctions against Russia, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson.

Putin? The man that worked to help Trump win? Perhaps the wealthiest man in the world, leader of a petrostate.

But that is just the start:

"Trump has also put forward a host of other appointees who are overt climate denialists and generally also have financial ties to industries threatened by the Carbon Bubble. These include Rick Perry, Trump’s choice for Secretary of Energy and a close ally of Big Oil; Scott Pruitt (EPA Administrator — a virulent climate denialist); Nikki Haley (U.N. Ambassador, also known for suppressing climate science as Governor); …Ryan Zinke (Secretary of Interior — who strongly supports more oil and gas exploration on public lands): Jeff Sessions (Attorney General and climate regulation opponent); Elaine Chao (Secretary of Transportation, who will be tasked with getting a huge fossil fuel infrastructure plan through Congress, working with her husband, Mitch McConnell); James Mattis (Secretary of Defense, who is not a denialist but does have oil industry ties); Michael Flynn (National Security Advisor — and former oil industry lobbyist); Larry Kudlow (Council of Economic Advisors — a climate denialist and frequent defender of the Koch brothers); Wilbur Ross (Commerce Secretary — holds ‘hundreds of millions of dollars’ in oil and gas investments); even Betsy DeVos (Education Secretary) is sister to Blackwater founder Erik Prince, who is investing heavily in African oil and gas fields, ‘places where he thinks his expertise in providing logistics and security can give him a competitive edge.’” https://medium.com/@AlexSteffen/trump-putin-and-the-pipelines-to-nowhere-742d745ce8fd#.azsbl1vpn

They owe their power to fossil fuels.  

Their allegiance shows in their actions, too. During the transition, in early December, the very first actions were to send out questionnaires about which civil servants had worked on clean energy. Only moments after he was sworn in, Trump felt compelled to remove the White House’s policy page on climate change (These changes didn’t even include reference to ACA changes. It accompanied only support for law enforcement and gun rights). His first weekday, Monday, January 23, he managed to freeze new regulations and hiring throughout the executive branch and by Tuesday, he had issued three memoranda to renew and expand pipeline construction for oil and gas and issued an executive order to “streamline” environmental reviews. His budget slashes funding for the EPA and climate programs within NOAA and NASA. His latest is a move to privatize the Energy Star efficiency program, even though it has been highly popular with businesses and consumers.

In the Congress, we have seen repeal of the Stream Rule (signed quickly into law by Trump within a fortnight of inauguration), which protected water from coal extraction, and repeal of the Methane Rule, which required capture and use of the fugitive methane from gas fracking. We have seen the repeal of input from local communities into land use decisions by the Bureau of Land Management. We have seen fossil fuel companies regain the ability to extract oil in partnership with foreign governments in secrecy. The GOP even introduced a bill to eliminate the EPA altogether.

And it is only March, 2017.

To fight the current authoritarian regime, we must starve them of their fuel.

Every penny we spend on coal, oil and gas strengthens them.  Every penny we spend on carbon free energy, we resist.

If we want to fight the GOP and the Trump administration, we must do it by starving them.

[While it may not be the direct intent, resistance has already begun at the state level; California, New York, Massachusetts and other states are renewing and strengthening their plans to transition from fossil fuels. The states are not alone. Internationally, we may have allies in  China, India and other countries that have been doubling down on the Paris Agreement since the election.]

Do you want to resist the current regime’s bigotry, religious intolerance, racism, fear-mongering and wealth consolidation? Add individual action to state and international action. Every penny you spend on coal, oil and gas strengthens them. Every penny you spend on carbon free energy, you resist their authoritarianism.

Use one of the most powerful tools of resistance we have; refuse them their source of fuel. Decarbonize.